The much-anticipated Fractal Analytics IPO is making headlines as one of the most exciting public issues of 2026. Marked as potentially India’s first pure-play artificial intelligence (AI) stock, the offering has drawn strong investor interest ahead of its subscription period in February. Here’s everything you need to know about the IPO, including grey market premium (GMP), pricing details, company profile and listing expectations.
About Fractal Analytics
Founded in March 2000, Fractal Analytics is a global AI and analytics company that helps enterprises make better decisions through data science, machine learning and artificial intelligence solutions. The firm works with many of the world’s largest companies across industries such as technology, consumer goods, insurance and healthcare.
Headquartered in Mumbai and New York, Fractal has grown into one of India’s most prominent AI players, with thousands of employees serving global clients.
IPO Overview
The Fractal Analytics IPO opens for subscription on 9 February 2026 and closes on 11 February 2026. The shares are expected to list on both the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) on or around 16 February 2026.
| Detail | Information |
|---|---|
| IPO Open | 9 Feb 2026 |
| IPO Close | 11 Feb 2026 |
| Price Band | ₹857 – ₹900 per share |
| Basis of Allotment | ~12 Feb 2026 |
| Refunds Initiated | ~13 Feb 2026 |
| Listing Date | ~16 Feb 2026 |
| Lot Size | 16 shares per application |
| Issue Size | ~₹2,834 crore (Fresh + OFS) |
The IPO consists of a fresh issue of new shares (around ₹1,023.5 crore) and an offer for sale (OFS) by existing shareholders amounting to about ₹1,810.4 crore.
Grey Market Premium (GMP) — What the Buzz Is About
One of the biggest talking points around the Fractal Analytics IPO has been the Grey Market Premium (GMP) — an unofficial indicator of listing expectations based on unregulated share trading before the IPO goes live.
GMPs are not recognised by exchanges or SEBI, but they reflect market sentiment. Values can vary widely depending on source and timing.
Recent GMP Snapshot (Unofficial)
- As of early February 2026, various trackers reported GMP values ranging from ₹85 to ₹165+ per share — implying listing gains of 9–18%+ over the IPO’s upper price band.
- Some outlets even cited stronger premiums (above ₹200) on certain days, though GMP levels fluctuate rapidly as the subscription approaches.
Example:
If GMP is ~₹99 on a ₹900 IPO price, this would imply an estimated listing price of around ₹999, or approximately 11% gain on debut.
Why This IPO Is Significant
India’s First AI-Focused Public Stock
Fractal is widely regarded as one of the first pure AI companies from India to tap public markets. This has generated interest both from long-term investors wanting exposure to AI and from retail participants seeking growth opportunities.
Strong Institutional Backing
The IPO has already attracted major anchor investors, with over ₹1,249 crore raised at the top of the price band before public subscription. Global financial names such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are among the anchor participants.
Strategic Uses of IPO Proceeds
Funds raised through the IPO will be used to:
- Repay certain debts of subsidiary companies.
- Expand research and development capabilities.
- Strengthen sales and marketing.
- Support growth initiatives including acquisitions and global expansion.
Investment Considerations
Before applying, investors should consider both fundamentals and market sentiment:
Strengths
- Leadership position in analytics and AI services.
- Long-standing relationships with global clients.
- Profitability in FY25 after a recent year of losses.
Risks
- Tech and AI valuations can be volatile.
- Grey market premiums are speculative and not guaranteed.
- Allocation pressures depending on subscription levels.
Fractal Analytics IPO – Subscription Trends & Potential Returns
As the Fractal Analytics IPO subscription period (9–11 February 2026) progresses, one of the most important signals for investors is how the issue is being subscribed across different categories — Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs), Non-Institutional Investors (NIIs / HNIs) and Retail Individual Investors (RIIs). The subscription trends give a strong clue about investor appetite and potential listing performance.
What Subscription Numbers Tell Us
Subscription data shows how many times the IPO has been bid relative to available shares. Higher subscription levels typically indicate strong demand, which can lead to prices popping on listing day if demand remains elevated. Conversely, muted subscription could signal caution among investors.
As of early subscription days (from 9 Feb), detailed live subscription figures are not yet fully reported publicly, but tracking services will update day-by-day throughout the bidding period. For now, investors must monitor live IPO subscription status on exchange portals or brokerage platforms once the subscription begins.
Early Market Sentiment: Grey Market Premium (GMP)
Alongside formal subscription data, GMP (Grey Market Premium) remains one of the unofficial but widely watched indicators of IPO demand and expected listing gains:
- Reports ahead of the IPO show GMP levels ranging from around ₹50–₹98 (+6–11% implied listing gain) based on recent unofficial market data.
- For example, if the GMP is around ₹98 and the IPO price band upper limit is ₹900, the implied expected listing price would be about ₹998 per share — suggesting roughly 10–11% gain over the issue price.
Important: GMP is not regulated by SEBI and can be volatile. It is useful for gauging sentiment but not a guaranteed predictor of actual listing performance.
What Subscription Trends Could Mean for Returns
Here’s how different subscription scenarios may influence returns:
1. Strong Oversubscription (All Categories)
- When retail, HNI and institutional bids are high, it suggests broad investor interest.
- Historically, heavily oversubscribed issues — especially from tech or growth sectors — tend to list with a positive premium.
- Combined with positive GMP, this scenario could support double-digit listing gains.
2. Institutional Demand Outpaces Retail
- Strong QIB demand is often seen as a quality signal, as institutions allocate capital based on deeper research.
- However, weaker retail demand could reduce volatility and potential immediate listing gains.
3. Weak or Moderate Subscription
- If the IPO sees lukewarm subscription, expectations for listing spurt may soften, despite GMP.
What To Watch During Subscription Days
To estimate returns and investor sentiment as subscription progresses:
- Day-wise Subscription Figures (especially retail)
Higher retail oversubscription often correlates with stronger listing pops. - Category Demand Breakdown
A strong institutional bid gives confidence about long-term prospects; retail enthusiasm is key for short-term gains. - Price Band Tightness
At the price discovery stage, how aggressively bidders commit near the upper band indicates conviction.
Summary: Potential Returns Checklist
| Indicator | What It Suggests |
|---|---|
| High Retail Oversubscription | Strong listing gains likely |
| Strong Institutional Bids | Confidence from big investors |
| Positive GMP | Short-term premium expectation |
| Muted Subscription | Cautious market sentiment |
| Weak GMP | Limited initial upside |
While subscription trends alone don’t guarantee a specific listing price, they — along with GMP — provide valuable real-time data for estimating potential listing returns. Readers should track live subscription numbers on NSE/BSE or through their broker on 9–11 Feb 2026 to make informed decisions.
Final Thoughts
The Fractal Analytics IPO represents a milestone for India’s AI ecosystem and offers investors an opportunity to participate in a company at the intersection of analytics and artificial intelligence. While GMP trends suggest positive listing sentiment, investors should balance hype with detailed analysis of financials, valuation and long-term prospects.
Rajil M P is a seasoned banking professional with over eight years of experience in the Indian banking sector. He has successfully completed the JAIIB and CAIIB examinations conducted by the Indian Institute of Banking & Finance (IIBF), reflecting his strong academic foundation and practical expertise in banking, finance, and risk management. He is the founder and editor of IndianBanker.com, a trusted platform focused on banking news, exam preparation, financial updates, and practical tools for banking aspirants, professionals, and informed readers. Drawing from real-world banking experience, Rajil simplifies complex topics such as interest rates, loans, deposits, RBI policies, and government schemes, making them easy to understand and apply.
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